Modelling the Airborne Spread of Ash Dieback Disease
People: Paul Burns,(opens in a new window)Forest Service,(opens in a new window)Chris Gilligan,(opens in a new window)Matt Castle,(opens in a new window)Maarten Nieuwenhuis,(opens in a new window)Jon Yearsley
This applied project will assess the risk of ash dieback spread across Ireland.
Ash dieback disease is caused by the fungus(opens in a new window)Hymenoscyphus pseudoalbidusthat threatens(opens in a new window)European Ash (Fraxinus excelsior)and the(opens in a new window)narrow-leafed ash (Fraxinus augustifolia)(other ash species can also be hosts for the fungus). Airborne dispersal of this fungus' spores is likely to be an important mechanism for the spread of this fungus, although other dispersal mechanisms are known, such as human transport of infected trees.
The modelling will predict the extent of fungal spore plumes from known infected sites by combining climate data from(opens in a new window)Met Eireannand the latest life-history data on the fungal pathogen (Hymenoscyphus pseudoalbidus). These data will be fed into the(opens in a new window)UK Met Office's Atmospheric Dispersion model (NAME). This model was originally developed in response to the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Today the model has been developed into a sophisticated tool for simulating atmospheric dispersion events, such as events including nuclear accidents, volcanic eruptions, chemical accidents, smoke from fires, odours.
The work is in collaboration with the(opens in a new window)Epidemiology and Modelling Group, Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridgeand the(opens in a new window)Forest Service.
The current status of ash dieback disease in Ireland is being(opens in a new window)monitored by the Forest Service.
Final Report
The final report from this project can be downloaded from the DAFM website.
Funding
This work is funded by the Department of Agriculture, Food and Marine as part of the 2014 competitive research awards.External Links
- (opens in a new window)Department of Agriculture, Food and Marine
- (opens in a new window)Forest Service
- (opens in a new window)Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge
- (opens in a new window)UK Met Office, NAME dispersion model
- (opens in a new window)Met Eireann
- (opens in a new window)EU research action on Ash dieback disease (FRAXBACK)
